The Friday ‘Picks’…”When Does The Cycle Turn?”

After a ‘kiss your sister’ Week 1 of predictions, we clear our heads in Week 2 and wait to see if the biggest percentage of improvement does come between weeks 1 and 2?

The mailbox was stuffed by Saturday noon last week with emails and texts from people questioning our picks from Week 1.  And some badly missed picks from Week 1, at that.

“Did you just guess?”  someone asked.

Another answered for that individual, “Given that it’s high school football isn’t every game a guess?”

The thought does cross my mind every year on opening week.  It’s so hard to know as much as you need to know, given there’s no sample size…except last year.

But guess?  Well, you do a bit of it in Week 1 because there’s so little to go on, except others’ evaluations.  The guessing part comes when you try to decide if last year’s sophomore is better as a junior – bigger, stronger, and more focused on assignment football.  Only coaches can tell you that, and even they don’t know until they see an individual play against another teams, who has many of the same questions to consider.

And is everyone healthy?  Because unless you actually witness an injury how would you know?  No one writes, or talks, about it.

The Friday Night ‘Picks’ page is sponsored by the Orthopedic Associates of Southwest Ohio, with convenient offices near you and the reputation for caring, professional service to the community.  If and when you need orthopedic care, you can be confident in the work and reputation of the professional at Orthopedic Associates.  If you enjoy the Friday Picks page, you can thank the folks at OASWO, sponsor of the Friday Night ‘Picks’ page since 2023.

Some of the bad misses we had in Week 1?  Piqua,..Versailles…Tipp City…St. Henry…and London, with this one caveat – that three of the five were highly competitive games that came down to a play, or a turnover, or a mistake that’s not unlikely to happen in the season’s first game.  And that’s football!

One old football coach once summarized the ups and downs of coaching this way:  “You take for granted that there’s going to be some tough times – losses.  Some years you have players and some years you don’t.  Some years you make mistakes, and some years you don’t.  It’s a cycle.  And you wonder, sometimes…when will the cycle ever turn?”

So we try to do better in Week 2, with twelve area games.  Because we need to see more, starting with……

Tippecanoe at Piqua…A lot of people would like to know what’s happened with the inconsistencies of Piqua football, and when their cycle might turn.  The answer, of course, is personnel, because the coaching staff, with the venerable Bill Nees, is largely intact.  The system that once worked so well is still there.  And Piqua has long been known for its defense, which does take some time to hone.   But what’s alarming in this case is this.  In an age where offense is the trademark of high school football, the Indians simply struggle to score.  Quarterback Chris Davis threw for just 57 yards last week against Lima, and the run game accounted for 136 yards and a 3.4 average in 4o attempts.  It’s true that Lima Senior has athletes and speed, but there was a time not so long ago when Piqua was more competitive in this matchup, with speed of its own.  Tipp, for their part, struggled to stop the run game against Bellbrook (256 yards) in one of the weekend’s biggest surprises.  On the other hand, Tipp will be one of those games where the greatest degree of improvement will come between the first and second game…and that’s bad news for Piqua since they’ve struggled against Tipp since Matt Burgbacher took the job in 2019.  Is this a guess?  Think again, given the recent history between the two.  I’d take Tipp this week, by as much as three scores.

Troy @ Xenia…This is suddenly a tougher week for Troy given their issues against speed the likes of what Pickerington North showed last Friday?  It’s true that Xenia had significant graduation losses last year, including the league’s top running back (Deaunte White, school’s all-time leading rusher), but there’s still a good enough core returning to represent a troublesome matchup for Troy in the second game of the season, despite losing to Beavercreek last week on a late field goal.  But I do expect Ryan Jones and staff to make some tweaks, because they couldn’t move the ball on offense (101 yards).  I would expect them to clean up some things, and play with more consistency on both sides of the ball.  This game was one of the Buccaneers three losses in 2025 and arguably the worst (24-14 to Troy).  If you believe in the present, given no Deaunte White, I like Troy to rebound behind quarterback Colton Akins and win on the road…by a score.

Bellbrook @ Bellefontaine…Sidney turned out to be the perfect opener for the Bellefontaine Chieftains last week, who are rebuilding now in the reality of both St. Clair quarterbacks having either graduated, or transferred.  Replacement Blake Loomis connected on 17 of 24 attempts for 130 yards and two scores in a 35-14 win over Sidney, and running back Bryant Carter ran it 18 times for 104 yards and a score.  But that was against Sidney, and this week amounts to Bellbrook, who upended Tipp, at home, without fanfare or apologies.  On the other hand, this is an excellent opportunity for the Chieftains to gauge themselves for the inevitable games to come against Jon Alder, Urbana, and London.  Picking the purple (Bellbrook) in this game, by two scores.

Marion Local @ Harvest Prep…Marion must have opened at least a few eyes with their dominating win over a good Carey program last week (34-7), and laid to rest some fears from those who believed Tim Goodwin this summer when he talked about this being the toughest two-week start in his 26 seasons as coach.  But the Flyers big advantage over Harvest Prep this week (on the road) will be their ability to outlast the Warriors, physically.  Versailles simply wore down Prep in the fourth quarter and I could see that happening again.  The challenge for Marion here will be to corral quarterback Collin Boff, who proved that he can make any throw on the field and has at least three receivers with which he’s comfortable to throw to at all times.  Boff is also a tough runner (6’3″, 225 lbs) and Versailles tacklers bounced off him more than once.  But I expect pressure on Boff from Marion’s week of preparation, and challenging production from sophomore quarterback Brennen Hess.  Based on what I saw, I expect a two to three-score win for Marion Local over Harvest Prep.

Covington @ New Bremen…One of the under-the-radar coaching jobs going on presently is that of Austin Morgan and what he’s doing with the Covington Buccs.  A runaway winner in the second half last week against Arcanum, Morgan coached them to a .500 season a year ago after years of struggle since joining the Three Rivers Conference.  Now the retooled Buccs take their show to another level and on the road to New Bremen,  and another under-the-radar program competing for MAC recognition in 2026.  Senior quarterback Gavin Dicke is a impact maker, and the Cardinals are well-coached by Chris Schmidt.  Easy winners last week over Wayne Trace, it might not be that easy against Covington.  But I expect the Cards to win, anyway, by at least a couple of scores.  Dicke can fling it, and he has people that can go get it.

Urbana @ Mechanicsburg...This is a game to circle – one of the best on the area schedule in Week 2.  Two tough-minded programs coached by old friends in Geron Stokes and Kurt Forrest, and there’ll be a lot of chipped-up helmets when it’s over.  However, Mechanicsburg did go up two divisions in Week 1 to beat Washington Court House, and put 32 points on the Blue Lions’ defense.  I don’t think they’ll do that to Urbana, and I do expect quarterback Grady Lantz to be more of a factor against Mechanicsburg than the quarterback play they saw against WCH.  Really good non-con game in Champaign County, and a litmus test for both teams, especially Stokes’ Hillclimbers.  In the end, I’m taking Urbana, on the road, by a score.

Fort Loramie @ Anna…If you think this is a gimme, so be it.  But get used to Anna appearing on the page until someone in the MAC proves that the Rockets are not worthy of week-to-week observation in 2026.  Despite what you might think about Marion Local and Coldwater, New Bremen and a different Versailles, there are a lot of people in the Rockets’ corner this fall, with quatrerback Logan Ziegenbusch.  The point is, the Rockets are prohibitive favorites to win this game, because they’re talented, and they have a solid year behind many of their good young players.   They are the talk of the MAC currently…until they prove they can knock off Coldwater and Marion.  And don’t worry.  They’re going to get that chance.  Loramie is a program that’s assembling, played tough against Minster last week, but in the end didn’t have enough to finish.  And you might see a repeat performance as such this week.  Rockets in this one, by at least three scores.

Milton Union @ Graham…Someone has already mentioned that they hope we don’t forget about the Milton-Union Bulldogs, and our old friend coach Bret Pearce.  Not a chance.  One of the truly good people in high school football, a great coach, and a Bulldog through and through.  And this week with an opportunity to play what’s become one of the rising programs in the Central Buckeye Conference in the Graham Falcons.  Graham (1-0) surprised some people with a 34-24 win over Kenton Ridge last week, and the Falcons are going to be a handful for Pearce and the Bulldogs, as well.  MU will win its usual five to six games this year, but this one would be a bigger surprise than Graham beating Kenton Ridge.  Some years are just like that, you know.  Taking the Falcons to win, at home, by two scores.

London @ Hamilton Heights (Indiana)…London coach Kyle Cutler knows that he probably had one get away in Friday’s 17-14 loss to New Albany.  Sure, Albany was a Division I school, and sure, London left some points on the field, no doubt.  Hardly anyone come away from opening night feeling like they played their best, or took advantage of the best elements of their attack.  So how to correct things, and soon?  The Red Raiders travel this week to Indiana to take on Hamilton Heights (4-6, 2025), a team that surrendered 257 rushing yards in a blowout loss to Lapel High School last Friday night.  And guess what London does best?  They run the football, and they’re going to run the football against a Hamilton, who that gave up another 200 yards through the air in that loss to Lapel, and just short of 500 yards for the night.  They haven’t often lost two in a row under Cutler in the past decade, and this one lines up as one for the taking to prepare for Franklin Heights next week.  Just run it Kyle…Red Raiders by at least two scores over Hamilton Heights.

Versailles @ CHCA…Speaking of Versailles, was their win over Harvest Prep last week enough to make us guess whether they can beat CHCA?  You have to consider the manner in which they did it.  They wore Harvest Prep down.  True to Scott Broerman’words about physical football, they got in the minds of Harvest Prep.  But CHCA proved, too, that they will have more balance in their win over Fenwick.  QB Nolan Lum threw for 179 yards, and running back Pedro Guimeiras ran for 139 and two touchdowns.  CHCA is also a team that won 9 of 10 in the regular season last year, but seven of those win were against teams with losing records.  A major concern would be the absence of Versailles running back Landyn Knapke, who was a factor in last year’s 35-21 Versailles win.  But a major plus might be the fact that teams do not see, and do not prepare that much, for the offensive look that they’ll see from Broerman’s full-house backfield.  We’ll know soon enough if ‘old school’ works.  This is a better team than Harvest Prep, but there’s enough similarities to make me believe that Versailles can compete.  And if they can compete, they might just win.  ‘Tigerball’, by a score!

Archbold @ St. Henry…You want to believe that St. Henry is one of those teams that benefits from a stern test on week 1, even in a losing effort.  But the Redskins have fought the early injury bug, and may not have much wiggle room against Archbold, who always plays sound assignment football.  In addition, Archbold return ten offensive starters from last year’s team that averaged 35 points a game and finished runner-up in their league to state champion Liberty Center.  The Blue Streaks were 9-3, and yes, lost to St. Henry for one of those three drops.  Junior quarterback Maddox Pinter returns and threw for 2,100 yards last year, supplemented by a healthy running game.  Therein lies an issue for St. Henry, who gave up too many yards last week (and 38 points) in a loss to Celina.  Will that cycle turn this week for the ‘Skins?  Archbold crushed Genoa (38-7) last week, and did it with balance, scoring on all four possessions in the second half.  This will be tough for St. Henry, who I believe will score.  But I question whether they can keep the Blue Streaks beneath 30 points.  Picking Archbold in this one, by a score.

Coldwater @ Clinton-Massie…To be sure this may or may not the Clinton-Massie Falcons of the Dan McSurley days, alarming to those in Clinton County who’ve grown accustomed to winning football and state titles under the now-retired McSurley (258-45 over the last 24 seasons).  Massie lost to Waynesville last week, a 4-6 team from a year ago, and that’s got the locals’ attention.  That was a road game at Waynesville, and this one is a home game for the Falcons, who rarely lose at home…at least during the McSurley days.  And Massie led Waynesville at halftime, 17-6.  Likewise, Coldwater rarely loses at home, but they lost to Massie last year at home (14-7), and that lingers in Chip Otten’s offensive mind as the Falcons bottled up and quieted the Cavaliers’ attack on the ground.  Healthier now, and coming off an impressive Valley View win, this will be another test against a familiar non-con rival under a first-year coach (Kevin Scholz), whose previous coaching experience came in the state of Texas.  Scholz’s father, Dan, is the long-time coach at Cincinnati Oak Hills.  So this is  what Otten was talks about concerning those first two non-conference games and what they tell you about what’s to come.  How good can they be, and how soon, with MAC play opening next weekend?  Coldwater is 3-2, all-time against Massie, and last beat the Falcons on the road in 2024 (31-15), a game in which then quarterback Baylen Blockberger sparkled on the ground and through the air.  And if the Cavs can eliminate some penalty mistakes from last week, get the run game going to allow for some balance with the pass game, this might resemble that Blockberger gem from two years ago.  On defense, stop the run and you go a long way in stopping Clinton-Massie, at least Massie teams in the past.  Their one big play from the Waynesville game was an early 67-yard TD run.  I would expect them to play better this week, but I like Coldwater, at Clinton-Massie, by two scores.