St. Henry quarterback Charlie Werling’s 1,300 yards and 24 touchdowns came against the unquestioned best conference competition in Division VII football. But how will it stand against Hillsdale, and can you even compare? (Press Pros Feature Photos)
After nineteen years, St. Henry sets its sights on their seventh state title in football with Saturday’s Division VII final…while Hillsdale Jerome seeks to prove that a 74-0 loss to Marion Local in last year’s final was just a stepping stone. It remains to be seen…which is the most powerful motivator.
If you were to talk with the respective coaches for this Saturday’s Division VII OHSAA football final you’d get the expected – anticipated – reactions. In journalistic circles it’s called ‘coach-speak’.
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Mutual respect…they’re a much better team than anyone realizes. St. Henry’s Josh Werling paid Jerome Hillsdale the ultimate compliment this week, being quoted in northeast Ohio media as saying that Hillsdale “would compete very well in our league.”
Hillsdale coach Trevor Cline added that St. Henry is another great team from a great conference. “They’re going to be the best team that we’ve played.”
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Is either true? Or, just ‘coach-speak’?
Well, the reality is this. To Werling’s point about competing within the MAC, Hillsdale is the same team that lost to Marion Local 74-0 in last year’s Division VII title game, and was anything but competitive in doing it. There were obvious differences in competitive culture that can only come as a result of the difference in culture comparing the Midwest Athletic Conference, and 48 all-time football titles spread between nine members…and the contemporary Wayne County Athletic Conference that has never won a football title.
However, once upon a time Massillon was a Wayne County Conference member, and yes, the Tigers did win a couple of titles in the early 40s. But they won them on paper…not on the field. Hence, the long-time nickname of the Massillon Tigers football, the “Paper Tigers”. That came to an end, however, when Massillon actually won the Division II state title in football on the field a couple of years ago, against Akron Hoban, in 2023.
And, if you go to the record book this year, and compare the statistical data of Wayne County Conference football members like – Waynedale, Rittman, Chippewa, Northwestern – there are no teams in the MAC conference that compare favorably to those four.
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And if you compute it – crunch the numbers, offensively and defensively – as computer analyst John Howenstein, from New Jersey, did for us earlier this week – comparing MAC on MAC to Wayne on Wayne – Trevor Cline’s quote about St. Henry being the best team we’ve faced is magnified…in spades!
“It’s very hard to find common ground between the two,” Howenstein shared during a phone conversation on Tuesday. “The best you have to go on is the competitive picture of the playoff outcomes for the respective teams. And when you compare St Henry’s wins over New Bremen, Marion Local, Columbus Grove, and the teams they’ve played since the start of the season…compared to Hillsdale’s numbers against Conotton Valley, Symmes Valley, and MacDonald – when you calculate the records and the stats against those schools against competition over the course of fifteen weeks – there is a difference. A big difference.
Hillsdale quarterback Kael Lewis saw first-hand aginst Marion Local..”what it’s like to play good teams from the rest of the state.”
Analysts can come up with statements like that and justify them. The figures don’t lie…that’s the old saying. The issue is…what the liars do with the figures. But the overall strength in competition cannot be disputed when you acknowledge that since 1972 the MAC Conference has actually won 48 state titles in football, highlighted, of course, by Marion Local’s 15.
And there is some credence to Cline’s comment from a year ago, following the 74-point blowout against Marion, that “we (Hillsdale) got our eyes opened today. We saw what it was like when you play good teams from other parts of the state, especially Marion Local.”
What Cline did not say, and might not have appreciated fully, is that the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree in MAC football. For nineteen years and through a lot of great athletes St. Henry was projected to compete again for the state title (their last coming in 2006), and yet…could never get beyond Marion, Coldwater, Minster, Versailles, New Bremen, Delphos St. John, Fort Recovery, and Anna during that 19-year absence. Every one of those school won at least one title during that period.
And is this the best St. Henry team since their Division V win over Warren JFK back in 2006?
Some say no, actually, man for man. There’s was always the MAC. Others say they wouldn’t dare try to compare.
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But, when you account for specific players and their impact at all-important positions – a Charlie Werling, for instance, the MAC’s undisputed offensive player of the year – when you compare the individual matchups that’s where these games have been won by the MAC since 1972. The question, as John Howenstein pointed out this week is…which team has the most dominant matchup advantages?
And against comparative competition – again, the numbers – it’s really hard to compute over the course of who’s played who since August 22nd.
Individually, you might compare Hillsdale quarterback to Kael Lewis, Hillsdale’s record setter at the position, to Charlie Werling. And no one got their eyes opened more than Lewis did a year ago against Marion. Werling, on the other hand, has had his eyes opened by Marion for four years.
Other comparisons boil down to what you did as a team against Rittman, against what you did as a team against Coldwater.
What you did against Chippewa compared to Anna. What you did against Symmes Valley compared to Columbus Grove. And in football, like no other sport you can compare, it’s all about who you’ve played.
“There’s really not that much statistical data out there on Hillsdale,” Howenstein concluded. “Sometimes that’s done for a reason. That’s all I can tell you.”
The rest of the story you’ll see for yourself. Marion Local scored against Hillsdale the first four times they touched the ball last year. If St. Henry does anything like that Howenstein and his data are vindicated.
If they don’t…throw out the figures. Games like this are supposed to be won on the field.
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