Week 6, and at the start of the second half some separation begins…experience vs. teams learning to get out of their own way. Of course, sixteen teams per region means…it’s not as important as it once was.
We missed on three of our eleven picks last week because, and for no better reason than young football again proved to be very unpredictable.
Those games? Miami East and Lehman, Covington and Bethel, and St. Henry and Anna. Troy coach Troy Everhart probably said it best, referring to the Trojans’ 25-22 loss to Tipp City, one of the games we got right.
“We’ve got to get out of our own way,” said Everhart. “Once we do that, we do pretty good.”
And no words can say it better.
This week…our feature games will see Marion Local vs. Versailles, a pair of undefeateds…St. Henry vs. Minster, 2-3 vs. 4-1…and Piqua (2-3) vs. that same Troy team (2-3), looking to avoid some of the things that cost them so dearly last Friday against Tipp. Other games of interest…Butler @ Tipp, Butler seeking to come off its own disappointing loss last week to Xenia. And Xenia, at 5-0, looks to keep rolling with a date against Fairborn…and they will.
The Friday ‘Picks’ page is sponsored weekly by the Orthopedic Associates of Southwest Ohio, whose availability and professional compassion is as unique as the patients, themselves. With offices throughout the Miami Valley, trust the Orthopedic Associates of Southwest Ohio if, and when, you need them.
There are some very good matchups this week, and the issue of youth as an excuse is beginning to expire – the haves vs. those still trying to find it. And the prime example is Lehman, who no one saw being 4-1 a month ago, but now has quality wins over Milton Union and Miami East, and seeks to keep it going this week with a home date against Bethel.
Another? The Ansonia Tigers, who no one believed would come back this quickly after graduation losses from last year’s regional final appearance. But low and behold, there they are at 4-1, following last week’s 34-28 win over Tri-Village.
Of course, sixteen teams per region means that it’s not as big a deal as it once was. But still, look for the cream to start rising to the top.
So let’s do it again, starting with…….
Twin Valley South @ Ansonia…Sure, those very Ansonia Tigers who just keep running, blocking and tackling, and winning. Against 1-4 TV South they’re going to be favored again, and until they meet Preble Shawnee in October 18 it’s unlikely that they going to see much trouble…providing they’re healthy, of course. Like them again this week…two-score winners, or more, over TV South.
Bethel @ Lehman…The reason we missed on Lehman last week was our gamble on the depth advantage Miami East had, and the quality of athletes like KJ Gustin and Jake Hamaker. The problem? Lehman had just as many good players who played, and tackled, better. Lehman quarterback Turner Lachey is probably the best athlete in the TRC Conference, and at 4-1 no other team in the TRC is playing with more confidence. Bethel is coming off a win over Covington, but one which Covington had multiple opportunities to win. I wouldn’t expect any youthful football this week from Lehman. I like the Cavaliers, at home, to win by two scores.
Fort Recovery @ New Bremen…On paper it may not be exciting, but to young New Bremen team who got thumped by Marion Local last week this represents an opportunity to get back on the horse and be 4-2 by night’s end. There’s talent at New Bremen, as evidenced by their one-point loss two weeks ago against Versailles. Their running game is solid enough with Rogan Muether, and the passing combination of Gavin Dicke to Grant Dicke will be a headache for Fort Recovery. I like New Bremen against 1-4 Recovery…by three scores.
Troy @ Piqua…I don’t have any idea who wins this game, and truthfully, I doubt if anyone does. A pair of 2-3 teams who have each had their moments of not getting out of their own way this year. But at least Piqua has won two of its last three, and played for a half against Tipp before running down in the final quarter. Troy has lost two of three, and played well enough against Tipp last week to give themselves a chance. This game used to be a big, big deal…and highly anticipated by the respective communities. But one just doesn’t get that impression at the present. 2-3 vs. 2-3 doesn’t raise many eyebrows. But at home, and in a series where Piqua has struggled of late, for pride’s sake I’ll go with Indians. It won’t be by a lot…but Piqua, by a score.
Fairborn @ Xenia…Despite people who ask, we really don’t know how good Xenia (5-0) is, because again…look at who they’ve played. Beavercreek, West Carrollton, Sidney and Stebbins don’t tell you much, and Butler played them very tough last week, which may say more about Butler than it does Xenia. But out of respect for 5-0, and leading rusher Deaunte White (721 yards), they’ll be 6-0 after this week, and that only heightens the anticipation for the next four weeks when they play Troy, Piqua, and Tipp. Xenia in this one…by four scores.
Butler @ Tipp…Tipp really does seem to be getting better with each passing week. That said, I really think that Butler will come to City Field Thursday night and give the Red Devils fits…or at least the biggest challenge they’ve had to date. Butler doesn’t have any stats leaders on offense, but their defense has been good enough to either take away, or limit, some of Tipp’s weapons – Will Strong, Larkin Thomas, and a diverse run game. To the point about improvement, I think Tipp is due to play with more liberty than they’ve had in their wins over Piqua and Troy. Not that they played badly, but look for that diversity. It’ll be tight, and I’m taking Tipp, but by only a score.
Parkway @ Coldwater…Again, out of respect for their record, 5-0 Coldwater deserves at least some attention as they inch ever closer to their week 10 meeting with Marion Local. And believe it, Parkway should get more respect than their record would indicate. They’ve played hard, and competed against teams like Minster and Versailles. They just don’t have enough bullets. Coldwater is healthy, and finding new ways each week to build their confidence. They met a great challenge by Minster last week, and won with a field goal in the final minute. So yes, they can do whatever it takes to win. They win this one, too…by three scores.
Minster @ St. Henry…Minster had Coldwater right where they wanted last week, but lost ground with a couple of turnovers, and then lost the game by a late Coldwater field goal. But…the Wildcats are for real – Brogan Stephey, Connor Schmiesing, Cole Richard, Caleb Couse, and Cole Albers, they have a lot of weapons to hurt you with both the run and the passing game. St. Henry had its chances last week at Anna, but could not overcome a poor start. I believe that St. Henry is going to be at least a .500 team this year, but I also think they’re going to have trouble taming all those Wildcat weapons. Maybe not the score you think, but I like Minster to win by two scores.
Marion Local @ Versailles…They’re both 5-0, but aside from the records these two teams might not be as close as outsiders might assume. Marion has been awesome, winning by an average of 48 points, and so good that their JVs are getting a lot of development time in the second half. Versailles is athletic, less experienced, but well-coached and a program that’s a year or two away from being what they were for the past two years. This is the best challenge that Marion has gotten since their game with Division III Franklin (49-0), and they’ll take the opportunity to answer whatever questions still exist. I like the Flyers to win by four scores.