Week 13: And Trying Not To Overthink (What We’ve Seen Before….)

 

Classic rematches highlight the third week of playoff football…St. Henry vs. Versailles, Marion vs. Minster, and Kenton Ridge vs. Urbana.  And have we learned anything from the regular season?

If we’ve learned anything from picking 12 previous weeks of high school football, it is that you learn from your mistakes.

You learn to not overthink what you saw in September and October.

You learn (or remember) the games that turned on a simple fumble or interception.

And you learn that in many cases the team that was better then…might still be better now.

And we’re going to get those second chances in this, the 13th week of the Friday Night ‘Picks’, sponsored by the Orthopedic Associates of Southwest Ohio.  OASWO has nine convenient locations up and down the I-75 corridor to serve you when you need them.  And you’ll find, as we write nearly ever week, that their reputation for caring professional service makes you feel better instantly.  You know you’re in good hands with your first visit to the Orthopedic Associates of Southwest Ohio.  Sponsors of the Friday Night ‘Picks’ page, we appreciate their commitment to community and the little things that make life better – predictably!

What we’ve learned over the years?  That this is the week that begins the ultimate games in high school football…what you’ve waited to see for the past 11 months.  What you talked about.  What we’ve written about.  Who are the best teams in the region, then and now?

Waynesville @ Graham (Div. V)…Credit to Waynesville for their best season in memory (9-2) and for getting past some teams that used to be roadblocks…Valley View, Clinton-Massie, and Brookville.  But the Graham Falcons have proven that they’re not the Falcons of the past in 2026, and at home they’re going to be more formidable than even those teams that used to flummox Waynesville, even during the best of days past.  Too big, powerful, and a running game that won’t let them down.  I pick Graham to win this…by three scores.

Miami Trace @ Bellbrook (Div. III)…I really believe in Bellbrook in 2026, and for one reason.  They’re the one team that beat Tipp City, and looked good doing it.  Of course, it was the opening game of the season, and no team has improved more since then than Tipp.  But Bellbrook has improved, too, and their style of play is made for regional final games.  The Eagles have played a good schedule, and they’re statistically better than Miami Trace.  Their ability to grind is impressive.  They win tight football games.  And I think this will be tighter than others seem to believe.  I don’t think it will be three or four scores, but Bellbrook wins this by a pair of scores.  Purple reigns!

Troy @ Anderson (Div. II)…I’ve been asked a dozen times since the Trojans clipped Lima Senior last Friday…who ya’ picking when they play Anderson?  And I lean on history.  Over the years I’ve seen Anderson play area teams regularly in Week 3 of the playoffs, and here’s what I’ve learned.  The forward pass is tough to defend 60 times in a football game, at any level!  And Anderson might throw it 60 times if they need to.  They usually do.  I’ve witnessed Anderson vs. Troy, and Anderson vs. Piqua in the past, and it always comes down to the reality of having an adequate pass rush and a secondary that’s accustomed to the constant pressure.  Someone, ultimately, is bound to make a mistake.  All that said, kudos to Troy for a year that no one could have expected under first-year coach Ryan Jones.  But Jones has worked his magic, has the Trojans believing, and I guess anything is possible.  I just don’t think Anderson, at 10-1, and a lone loss in Week 1 to Trinity, out of Louisville, is probable.  Owing to the title of this week’s page, there’s no need to overthink it.   I’m picking what used to be the Redskins – now the Raptors – to win by at least two scores.

McNicholas @ Tipp City (Div. III)…A classic regional game that bodes your attention, because McNicholas has played the better schedule of the two, and has proven that they’re capable of winning tight games.  Their lone losses have been to Harrison and Ironton early, but since then Rockets have feasted on more average opponents.  Tipp will not be average.  And here’s what you worry about when you play the Red Devils (10-1).  One, is quarterback Larkin Thomas…he’s that good.  Two, is their offensive balance – remarkable.  Three, they’re content to beat you with their defense – and can.  And four, and most important…they’re healthy.  At home, and as capable of playing mistake-free as any team in the playoffs, I take Tipp.  You can’t NOT take Tipp…by two scores.

Kenton Ridge @ Urbana (Div. IV)…A classic inner-league game that went Kenton Ridge’s way when they first met back on October 9, 21-14.  Since, Urbana has tightened down on some of the little things that hurt them big in losses to London, Lima Central Catholic, and yes, Kenton Ridge.  I will say that Kenton Ridge has surprised people on their way to 10-2, and what surprises the most has been their commitment to things that help you win.  Fewer mistakes than in the past.  But it’s tough to beat a team like Urbana twice, as nearly every coach and player point to, and this is going to be a game that demands attention to the details.  Two balanced teams, and two teams that by this time believe in themselves.  But at home, and with the memory of 21-14 in their minds, I’ll go with Urbana…by a score.

CHCA @ London (Div. IV)…There’s a reason why Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy is 10-1, and it’s not the 10.  It’s the 1.  Their lone loss of the year came on Week 2 against Versailles, a game in which the Tigers wore them down in the second half – the more physical of the two teams.  And since that loss CHCA has beaten Roger Bacon, Taft, Meadowdale and New Richmond, along with others just like them.  But they haven’t played another team like Versailles, especially a healthy team like Versailles.  Until now.  London is that team that’s physical, will run the ball with aggression, and really believes that they’re the toughest team on the field.  And to beat the Red Raiders you have to be balanced, capable of throwing the ball…and just plain tougher.  I’m not sure the schedule has prepared them for a team like London or Versailles.  Too many Aikens.  At home, I like London to win by at least two scores.

Coldwater @ Eastwood (Div. V)…We haven’t seen Eastwood much outside of a playoff game in Canton against Wheelersburg, a few years back.  And that’s not relevant now.  The Eagles (10-1) only loss came against Liberty Center, who most believe is the best Division VI team in the state, and their 10 wins have come against lesser competition like Oak Harbor and Lake.  Admittedly, this is not the Coldwater of years past, but it is a Coldwater that was 4-4 in the MAC Conference this year, and statistically Eastwood’s record against competition doesn’t stand up to that.  The issue here, I believe, is the travel.  This makes three weeks of traveling long distance to play Genoa Area, Triway, and now Eastwood.  And while coaches disagree, I think the long bus ride is a distraction.  It’s likely to be close, and Coldwater can win this because they’ve got a good kicking game, if needed. I’m not sure either has a clear-cut advantage, but playing at home four out of the last five weeks is a huge advantage for Eastwood – the proverbial twelfth man.  The defenses will reign, and somehow I think Coldwater might continue to amaze…by a score.

New Bremen @ Riverside (Div. VII)…In Division VII I’m pretty sure there’s no better 7-5 team play currently than New Bremen.  And once again, you can make the point that their schedule has prepared them better than most of the teams they’re likely to see from here to the end.  Riverside has had a magical year at 9-2, but the Pirates have not played Versailles and St. Henry.  New Bremen has, and narrowly lost to both.  Gavin Dicke and Jacob Kelly are difference makers, and should illustrate our point about not overthinking the outcome.  I pick the Cardinals by three scores.

Minster @ Marion Local (Div. VII)…The people in northeast and northwest Ohio are beginning to fidget.  Once again, in Division VII you have to concern yourself with the inevitability of having to play an unbeaten Marion Local (11-0) team that appears to have its familiar momentum in November.  And once again, as in 2024, Marion plays Minster this week in what many, including myself, think to be the Div. VII title game three weeks before the fact.  When they met on October 16 Marion won it resolutely, 28-7, and you felt that their defense was the reason.  Minster can score, and score in bunches when at their best.  But not against Marion.  When they met in 2024 Marion won both of those games then with their defense, 21-0 and 21-7, exactly a month apart.  And people called it the state title game come early.  Minster (8-3) will have to throw to win this, and Marion’s run game is so good at this point that they’ll limit the Wildcats’ time of possession, so every possession counts.  Make no mistake, if it weren’t for Marion I think Minster is the state champ in Division VII, just like in 2024 – their three losses are to Anna, St. Henry, and Marion Local.  But you can’t bet against Marion, and  I like them to win again, by two scores.

Versailles @ St. Henry (Div. VI)…OK, here it is.  Maybe the most compelling MAC playoff game of the weekend, and the reasons for stating such make sense.  St. Henry (9-3) and Versailles (8-4) are as healthy as they’ve been all year.  They have all their parts available.  Their styles are a lot alike because they love to run the ball, and both throw it adequately.  And both delight in playing hard, physical football.  And by the way, both are pretty confident in the way they’re playing…right now!  Coincidentally, I’ve seen both more than other MAC teams this year, and so there’s very few surprises left.  Don’t believe that one of these teams is 30 points better, as others post.  The team that gets an early lead is going to run it, play defense, and do what’s necessary to protect that lead.  The game will be dictated by running backs like Landyn Knapke (Versailles) and Drew Langenkamp (St. Henry).  The respective quarterbacks, Blake Monnin (Versailles) and Landon Schwartz (St. Henry) are capable, and able to make the necessary throw if they have to.  But this game will be won in the trenches with the two best interior lines in MAC football.  That’s what Versailles coach Scott Broerman wanted when he took over the job in January…a return to Al Hetrick-style physical, Versailles football.  And St. Henry has always relied on a running game with backs like Andy Puthoff, Owen Lefeld, and Drew Langenkamp.  As close to a toss-up as you can get, playing at home…I lean toward St. Henry’s experience. They are, after all, defending champs. Redskins, by a score.