Week 12…The Top Seeds Play As The Field Begins To Thin…..

Week 12 means the emergence of the top four seeds in each region.  Will time off hurt anyone?  Is there a winner from Week 11 portraying a Trojan horse?  And are there any expected upsets?

In an odd first weekend of the playoffs we correctly picked 7 of the 8 games listed, and count it as one of the better weeks of the year.  Those 8 through 12 seeds are tough because you don’t see them enough during the regular season to form a calculated opinion.  Again…tough!

Now, this week, the top four seeds will play the winners from last week and we know plenty about them.  And the question is…will anyone have gotten rusty or lost their edge from the week off?

And is there one of those bottom seeds that’s actually better than anyone knew?

Is there an unannounced Anna out there capable of pulling the surprise upset?  You might be surprised.

The Friday Night ‘Picks’ are sponsored by the Orthopedic Associates of Southwest Ohio, with nine offices convenient to the Miami Valley…and the reputation for a bedside manner that makes you feel better from the time of your first contact.  Rest assured, you’re in good hands with the professional from Orthopedic Associates, if and when you need them.  Our thanks, as always, for their support in profiling area high school football from Bellbrook to Bellefontaine…the Orthopedic Associates of Southwest Ohio.

There’s more to cover this week so let’s jump in right away.  Starting with….

Covington @ Deer Park (Div. VI)…Covington was that lone miss among our Week 11 picks mainly because we hadn’t seen, or even heard about Huntington High School, their opponent from Chillicothe.  But impressively, the Buccs have become the shiny object among area football programs this year for their ascension from 0-10 in 2023 as a Division VII school.  Last week they came from behind in the first half to score 35 points and move on to Week 12, confident in their run game and overall toughness on defense.  That won’t be as easy this week against the #2 seed, Deer Park (9-1), a team we saw in the 2025 playoffs that had more size and athletes than the typical team from the Three Rivers Conference.  That said, Covington is going to have its opportunities if they can find a way to control the ball and the clock – deny Deer Park some of its athleticism.  Deer Park has scored a lot of points against teams like Norwood and Schroeder, but those teams aren’t as physical as Covington.  It’ll be an interesting matchup, culturally, going into suburban Cincinnati.  But the question is about the matchups on the field?  I have to pick Deer Park, by two scores.

St. Henry @ Tri-Village (Div. VI)…One of the more interesting games on the schedule this week because Tri-Village is undefeated and the #1 seed, and St. Henry is 8-3 and the defending state champ in Division VI – the classic upset possibility of a #9 seed being looked over.  This is not unlike what Tri-Village faced last year against Coldwater, when the Patriots had their issues with slowing down Coldwater’s skill players.  This year it’s St. Henry with more size, power, and the ability to throw downfield to good size with their wide receivers.  I think the Patriots stay close in the first half, but eventually St. Henry’s size will wear the Patriots’ defense down.  Tri–Village has the athletes, but St. Henry, overall, has just so much going for it.  I’m picking St. Henry, by at least a couple of scores.

Versailles @ Cin. College Prep (Div. VI)…We not only predicted the score last week, but that the Versailles vs. Portsmouth West game would be one of the better examples of Division VI football in the opening round.  Despite the lopsided score, Portsmouth West had talent, but Versailles played that well, buoyed by getting some bodies back from the injury list.  For instance, Landyn Knapke missed much of the season with a leg injury, and now that he’s back he carried the ball for 91 yards and a 62-yard touchdown against Portsmouth.  But College Prep (9-1) will not have seen interior line play like Versailles has and that will be the biggest difference in this game.  They simply haven’t been tested like Versailles has (7-4), and the Lions will struggle to avoid the running clock, even at 9-1.  I’m not as generous as Drew Pasteur, but I like Versailles conservatively, by three scores.

Valley View @ London (Div.IV)…On paper this is one of this week’s best competitive matchups.  But Valley View will have to gear up for London’s powerful run game.  Likewise, London will have to adjust to Valley View’s advantage in size.  London is the #2 seed and got there on their ability to control the line of scrimmage, and ultimately the time of possession.  This is not the typical Valley View team, but impressively the Spartans managed to improve throughout the year and play to an 8-3 record.  Their most notable wins were against Oakwood and Edgewood, and their most notable losses were to Coldwater and Bellbrook.  And I don’t think they can beat London at home, either.  Red Raiders, by two scores.

Urbana @ North College Hill (Div. IV)…At 8-3 I think Urbana is one of the best stories in area football, and with one of the best futures.  North College Hill, at 9-0, is an undefeated team this year that only has one win against a team with a winning record…Cincinnati Country Day.  Urbana is by far the better tested of the two and I believe capable of winning another big game on the road.  But NCH’s roster has more size than Urbana is accustomed to, and there are still questions about transfer eligibility with a number of NCH players.  Playing somewhere in Cincinnati, the smart pick is North College Hill.  I smell upset, though…Urbana by a score.

Goshen @ Tippecanoe (Div. III)…Goshen (10-1) has had its best year in decades, averaging about 40 points per game.  Tipp (9-1) has had its best defensive year in the 7-year tenure of Matt Burgbacher as head coach, having given up just 20 point over the past nine weeks…since they lost to Bellbrook in the season’s opener.  This will be the best matchup played on I-75 this week, and unfortunately, Tipp does not seat 5,000 people who probably want to see it.  Playing at home, and as healthy as they’ve been since July, I cannot pick against the Red Devils’ defense.  I like Tipp to win this game by at least two scores.

Troy @ Lima Senior (Div. II)…Lima’s 9-1 record is questionable, because there’s a lot of Bowshers and Toledo Scotts on it.  But the Spartans do have athletes and they just happen to play in a conference on a down cycle.  Troy is 9-2, out of another league on a down cycle, but the Trojans have steadily improved since the beginning of the year and are as competitive at this point as any team that Lima Senior has played.  If speed matters to you then Lima is probably the favorite.  If focus and the desire to win in order to play another week is your focus then Troy is an excellent upset pick in this game.  My gut tells me that Troy just has something going for it, and if the Trojans get the running game going, and get ahead, they can be frustrating to the Spartans’ big-strike mentality.  I’ll go with Trojans, not Spartans, to win by a score.

New Bremen @ Ansonia (Div. VII),,,The good folks in western Darke County have always been proud of Ansonia football and a style of play that then coach Eugene Hoening all but patented – run left, run right, and run up the middle.  It’s all about block and tackle and the Tigers rarely throw the ball, or even have to defend the pass in the run-happy WOAC.  When Adam Hall, a disciple of Hoening’s took over as coach, he stayed the course, and they still run the ball, left, center and right. The Tigers are 9-1, always confident on their home field, and have at least some history of success playing MAC schools.  In 2023 they knocked out St. Henry, and they ran the football.  Fast forward now, and New Bremen brings a different looking challenge.  Quarterback Gavin Dicke is a threat to run as well as pass, and senior Jacob Kelly ranks third in MAC rushing with more than 900 yards, while Dicke is fourth with 800 yards.  Moreover, the Cardinals rank #2 in MAC team defense.  This is a very well-balanced team, despite their record of 3-5, and you guessed it, all five losses are against the top five MAC teams.  Despite their win over St. Henry in 2023, Ansonia is just 1-4 against MAC teams since 2017, and 0-2 against New Bremen.  And this by far will be their biggest test of the 2026.  Discounting their respective records…I still pick New Bremen in this game, by two scores.

Fort Recovery @ Minster (Div. VII)…For the second time in three weeks these two meet with Minster remembering their 21-0 shutout over the Indians on October 23.  It was one of Minster’s best performances of the year, and they’re going to need that kind of memory and confidence to repeat it under playoff circumstances.  Fort Recovery, from a competitive standpoint, is a far better team than their record (4-7) indicates.  Like New Bremen, six of their seven losses have come against the best MAC teams.  And once again, they have nothing to lose.  Physically, they have a size advantage, but Minster (7-3) has proven to put up points in a hurry with their quickness on offense.  Quarterback Carson Kaylor has the weapons.  They know each other well, of course, and this will be competitive.  But for Minster’s sake, this is a game they have to win to prove that October 23 was no fluke.  Their three previous losses came against Anna (7-3), Marion (10-0), and St. Henry (8-3).  Seth Whiting will have them ready to go…Minster, by two scores this time.

Fort Loramie @ Marion Local (Div. VII)…It’s hard to pick Fort Loramie to win this, but it’s easy to respect the competitive virtues of the Redskins’ 6-5 record against one of the toughest schedules in area Division VII this year.  Quite frankly, Spencer Wells is one of the area’s premier coaches.  And yes, this game pits Wells against one of the state’s premier coaches in Tim Goodwin.  They’ve met before, and Marion has always won, but this one has an air of confidence on the part of Loramie that they didn’t have back in 2019 when Marion beat them by a field goal in overtime.  Back in Week 2 Fort Loramie shocked the region with a last-second win over heavily-favored Anna that ended up knocking the Rockets out of the playoffs.  And Redskins quarterback Tanner Heckman ranks among the best at his position that Marion will have played against in their previous ten games.  But Marion is Marion, with their customary talent and experience at quarterback and their skill positions, plus an improving defense that’s looked more like a state champion group with each passing week.  They’ve given up just three touchdowns in the past five weeks.  You cannot pick against Marion in a game this early, but give Loramie its due.  They’re going to threaten.  I like Marion to win, however, by three scores.