What Will Make The Difference In Ohio State vs. Indiana?

Determining factors in Saturday’s top-five matchup could be many or it could come down to one play. Whatever the outcome, Ohio State will learn about its ability and readiness to win games like this one.

Columbus, OH – Simple ways for No. 5 Ohio State to defeat No. 4 Indiana on Saturday do not exist.

So many plays can go right. Then one play can go wrong.

Jeremiah Smith could stack up Heisman moments like two-by-fours. Doesn’t guarantee victory.

Not when the opponent owns 22 straight victories, is loaded with veterans and doesn’t beat itself. Not when third-year head coach Curt Cignetti has yet to lose at Memorial Stadium – a home-field advantage for the first time in decades.

The Hoosiers, however, do not come from the land of invincibility. Northwestern and Nebraska exposed vulnerabilities.

The number-crunchers in Vegas made the Buckeyes a 3.5-point favorite.

Fact is, this game could go all kinds of up, down and sideways directions for either team. Maybe it will be a 60-minute game, maybe not. But head Buckeye Ryan Day expects an all-afternoon tussle.

“You have to stay focused for 60 minutes,” he said. “The challenge for all of us is to make sure that you don’t take a play off, or these guys will hurt you.”

Cignetti surely espouses a similar message because along the way big plays you make and mistakes your opponent makes will be the difference. His team thrives on those moments, especially when they are simultaneous.

On their way to last year’s national championship, the Hoosiers mastered the art of consistency, waiting for the opponent to break. Ohio State, mistake-prone throughout, ultimately broke in the Big Ten championship game when it missed a short field goal that would have forced overtime. Last Saturday, the Hoosiers did it with big plays and Nebraska mistakes on two big-play touchdown passes in the fourth quarter to win 20-17.

Every team relies on veteran leaders for such moments. The Hoosiers, to Cignetti’s credit, continue to have more veterans than is typical.

“Truthfully, they have a lot of old guys on their team, and they’re very smart, and they’re not gonna beat themselves,” Ohio State tight end Mason Williams said. “They’re a bend, don’t break type of team. We’re just gonna have to keep going at them. They’re up-front guys, they’re big, they’re tough.”

The battle in the trenches. Win the line of scrimmage, you win the game, the saying goes.

Mostly. Nebraska outrushed Indiana 128-65 and outgained them overall 391-328. In last year’s meeting, Indiana outgained the Buckeyes by a negligible amount, 340-322.

The Hoosiers mastered that elusive, difficult-to-define trait of knowing how to win.

Just when a team thinks it has the Hoosiers stopped, their consistency of effort and execution hits you with a big play. They did it to the Buckeyes last year when Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza threw a 51-yard pass to Charlie Becker to set up a 17-yard touchdown pass for the winning points.

All the while the Buckeyes were beating themselves with only 10 points on four trips inside the 10 and an early interception that handed Indiana a field goal.

Nebraska, starved for a win over a ranked team, got too comfortable when it scored on a big play to take a 17-6 lead early in the fourth quarter. All the Hoosiers did was score on the next play and then again, both long passes, to silence all of Lincoln.

Ohio State leads the nation with 11.2 yards per pass attempt. Guess who’s second? Indiana at 10.6. Fifth-year quarterback Josh Hoover and potential first-round receivers Becker and Nick Marsh, both juniors, are the reason.

Hoover threw 13 interceptions at TCU last year, but this year he’s thrown none. Is it him or Cignetti?

“He’s playing really efficient,” Day said. “They’re doing a good job of putting him in a system that takes care of the ball. And that’s one of the reasons why they’ve been so successful.”

Hoover isn’t playing it safe with a short-passing, west-coast style offense. He’s throwing down field to Becker and Marsh. They are a trio capable of making big plays when nothing else is working, particularly because they execute run-pass option (RPO) plays so well.

Against Nebraska, Marsh caught 75- and 44-yard touchdowns to win the game. On the 75-yarder, he beat a cornerback on a slant while the safety bit on a play fake for an easy catch and run. On the next one, he got wide open down field on a blown coverage. Again, it was the RPO, more because of Nebraska’s lack of discipline than Hoover’s sleight-of-hand magic.

“It’s just a team with two good receivers, and we got good cornerbacks,” Ohio State cornerback Devin Sanchez said. “We’re expecting to play four quarters, just like them.”

Still, Indiana wants to turn running backs Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr. loose. Each has a 200-yard game this season, albeit against much lesser competition.

However, the Hoosiers rushed for only 65 yards against Nebraska. And the Buckeyes, after getting gashed for 199 yards by Illinois, clamped down on Iowa and Maryland.

“We’ve got it turned around,” linebacker Payton Pierce said. “They’ve got some really good backs, and we know the areas of the defense where teams tend to game plan for us. We’ve got stuff in to stop it.”

Of course, the Indiana defense will have its hands and feet full, trying to stop and slow Ohio State. Day likes the ball-control run game he’s seen in the two most recent second halves. Commitment to running efficiently and staying out of obvious passing downs are high on the list of goals.

Because explosive runs don’t characterize the Buckeyes. Bo Jackson and Ja’Kobi Jackson get the tough yards, push the pile and fall forward. However, Ja’Kobi Jackson is out this week. That leaves third back Isaiah West and maybe freshman Legend Bey to keep Bo Jackson fresh.

Bey’s potential to break explosive runs could be a wild card. Day, however, continues to keep Bey on a prove-yourself-worthy program.

“He’s taken some steps in the right direction for sure,” Day said. “And he’s built a little momentum. So I’d like to have another good week with him.”

The Hoosiers will rely on their front four and linebackers to control the run game and put pressure on Julian Sayin, who they sacked five times last year. However, if the offensive line stalemates the Hoosiers and this matchup evolves into Sayin and Jeremiah Smith against Indiana’s secondary, well, that favors the Buckeyes by a lot.

Sayin and Smith led a passing game last year good enough to beat Indiana. Sayin completed 21 of 29 for 258 yards and a touchdown. Smith caught eight passes for 144 yards.

Sayin, a year older and a season wiser in his ability to read defenses, moves in the pocket more this season. He’s not an flashy play extender or great runner, but Day sees improvement.

“It’s the presence in the pocket and feel in the pocket,” he said. “It’s something that all quarterbacks have a process of developing. And I think you’ve seen a lot of progress made there.”

This season Sayin scrambles for a touchdown and occasionally gains first downs. When to run and when not to, continues to be a learning experience.

“There were opportunities this year where maybe we could have actually just progressed to the check down instead of needing to take off,” he said. “So it is balancing that fine line of do we need to take off here, or can we keep working the progression.”

Sayin’s easiest decision: Throw to Smith.

Smith creates explosive plays down the field and by turning short passes into long touchdowns like he did twice against Maryland. He also makes one-handed catches like normal humans do with NERF footballs.

“There’s no one like him right now playing at this level,” Cignetti said. “We’ve got two really good ones [but] he’s a freak. We’re gonna have to do a great job on him.”

Sayin also gets starting receivers Devin McCuin and Brandon Inniss back after they missed one game.

A more intact and more experienced O line, with the return of right tackle Phillip Daniels, should also help protect Sayin. The Hoosiers’ front four moves arounds, twists and stunts and does everything it can to confuse the offensive line. And when the Hoosiers blitz, they prefer to attack the blind side.

“Understanding their tendencies this year is really important,” center Carson Hinzman said. “And we’ve been doing a really good job of that, diagnosing the fronts, diagnosing their tendencies on when they twist or how they’re looking.”

Big picture, the theory exists that the Buckeyes face the most pressure because their last three top-10 games ended in defeat. Maybe. And maybe the Buckeyes will play like a team with nothing to lose.

And what do statistics, track records and veteran leadership mean in the context of schedules?

The Hoosiers opened with North Texas, Howard and Western Kentucky. The Buckeyes played Ball State and Kent State. But they also went to Texas and almost won. The Hoosiers beat Northwestern and Nebraska by an average of 4.5 points. The Buckeyes won at Iowa – supposed to be a superior team to Northwestern and Nebraska – by 17 points.

When Indiana needed to make plays to hold off Northwestern and rally past Nebraska, they made them. When Ohio State needed to make plays to put Texas away, they failed.

When talent and program success equate, Day calls those matchup games. And the outcome of close games between talented teams often begins at the same place.

“Everything’s going to start up front in this game,” Day said.

Matchup games don’t always end there. Big plays, turnovers and made or missed field goals will stand out.

Finally, Ohio State only wins if they do what Hinzman exhorted his teammates to do in the hype video Ohio State released this week.

“The standard we play by is the standard we live by is the standard we die by.”

Vegas says it will come down to a kick. Standards aside, if the oddsmakers are correct, will that be the Buckeyes making one to win or missing one again?