Eight Saturdays from now the Ohio State football team will run into the Horseshoe to begin another season of high expectations. (Press Pros Feature Photos)
Obsess over the numbers ESPN and others produce to predict the 2026 season all you want. But you don’t need them to know Ohio State is loaded and ready to be great again.
Eight more Saturdays until THE Ohio State Buckeyes begin another football season of high expectations. And you, Buckeye fan, own expectations of the highest nature no matter how much confidence you hide or feign.
Because, well, “We’re Ohio State,” history reminds you. “We shouldn’t lose to anybody.”
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Fans in other parts call it arrogance. Ryan Day calls it the expectation he relishes more with each passing season.
However, thousands are asking (or at least a dozen or so counting my random run-ins with friends who think I have inside information), how good will the Buckeyes be in the fall of 2026?
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“Well, they’re always good,” I say. “The real question is, how good will they be in the playoff. And it’s hard to imagine 12-0 with their schedule.”
The attitude – always – behind the fanatics’ question is usually somewhere between cautiously optimistic and pessimistic. Those losses to Indiana and Miami still subdue confidence.
But hope exists. And not just hope for the sake of hope. I am not the least bit hesitant to go on record that the 2026 Buckeyes will be a lot better than the 2025 Buckeyes. Yes, I’m aware that’s a safe and stout limb to crawl out on. Your opinion may vary.
Good enough to win it all? A weaker limb to be sure, but I’m crawling out there without a net, no questions asked. I won’t emphatically predict a national championship – not yet anyway – because I want to see them on the field, not on paper, not in polls, not in strength of schedule rankings, etc.
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Beware that the 2026 regular season could unfold a lot like Ryan Day’s first championship run. And, even with a consternating loss or two, you’ll take that every day and twice in three years.
Remember, way back in 2024, how the Buckeyes lost 32-31 at Oregon on October 12 and 13-10 at home to Michigan. Did two losses really matter? Did they ruin anything (and I am including the fourth straight loss to Michigan in that question)?
Of course not. Those two losses, by the grand total of four points, didn’t hurt. In fact, 99% of observers credit the Michigan loss with waking a sleeping giant. And Gulliver went on to make every opponent look small in comparison.
Julian Sayin’s return gives the Buckeyes an experienced leader and one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country.
The offense will be better with Julian Sayin in his second season, with the presence of super-duper-star Jeremiah Smith, with a big-time emergence of running back Bo Jackson and with experience that will make the offensive line more than adequate. The defense will reload. Trust me.
What turned my brain on to football season this week was the release of ESPN’s strength of schedule metric. The Buckeyes rank No. 8. And SEC apologists were quick to point out that the top seven are SEC teams.
The mighty SEC is No. 1 again in the heat of the summer. Let’s all shake in our flip-flops.
Strength of schedule prepares only good teams for the playoff. Ohio State’s weak schedule last year proved that. Still, a high SOS ranking can’t rescue a team from poor play or inferior talent. The top seven are Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Florida. Then the Buckeyes. Then Texas A&M and South Carolina. Only Texas possesses the profile of a title contender.
The second Big Ten team is No. 16 Michigan. The SEC occupies 14 of the top 15 spots. What does it all mean? Nothing, really. Most of those SEC teams will lose three to seven games. Not just because of the schedule. Because they’re not playoff material.
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Last year the SEC claimed the top 16 spots in preseason SOS, a trend that is becoming the league’s most relevant time of the calendar year. By season’s end Wisconsin was No. 1, Purdue was No. 4, UCLA No. 5, Oregon No. 6 and Indiana No. 10. The SEC had nine left in the top 16, and only Alabama and Oklahoma made the playoff. They played in the first round. Alabama won, then got drop-kicked by Indiana.
Ergo, preseason strength of schedule metrics are clearly weighted toward the SEC and not worth the internet space they occupy.
Ohio State is No. 1 in ESPN’s SP+ rating with the number 31.8 attached. Oregon is No. 2 at 28.3. I’m not sure an AI engine could adequately explain to my math-challenged brain what the formula behind those numbers means. Don’t even care.
The Buckeyes might not win this trophy again in 2026. Sure, they want to, but it’s not the biggest prize they’re chasing.
To be fair to the SEC, those numbers are only slightly more predictive than strength of schedule. But, interestingly, the Big Ten occupies three of the top five spots and five of the top 16, all of which play Ohio State. The SEC’s highest team is No. 4 Georgia, and the league occupies eight of the top 16 spots.
News flash. The Big Ten and the SEC will be the best leagues in the nation. Arguing over which is best at the top or deepest makes for some exhausting banter. Have at it.
Only two things matter anymore because conference strength became much less of a factor with 12 playoff teams.
Making the playoff is a bonus to a head coach’s pay and a notch in a program’s belt, maybe even a banner at lesser programs than THE. And nothing beats winning it all and the job security it provides.
Everything else – best conference, computer-driven ratings, strength of schedule – is as worthless as a college athlete’s commitment to stay four, now five years.
Ignore the numbers and watch the games. The eye test and wins and losses against other good teams tell you more than SOS and SP+.
And be optimistic Ohio State fan. These guys – whether 12-0, 11-1 or 10-2 – will be one of the best teams an America. And, quite possibly, the scarlet and gray will be crowned with the only No. 1 that matters on January 25 in Las Vegas.
Dave Arbogast is the official transportation source for Press Pros Magazine.com.