Tipp will need to learn from London’s experience against Watterson last year. You have to play a perfect game. (Press Pros Feature Photos)
Just because we don’t do a Friday Picks page beyond the regional final round of the football tournament, it doesn’t mean that we’re out of predictions. And if you’re wondering about the impact of NIL on high school sports….well, use some good common sense.
Received a very kind text this morning from a reader in Allen County, who said, “I can’t believe there’s no Friday Picks page any more. What am I supposed to do for information and opinion?”
I can’t answer your question about information, but there’s always a fresh supply of opinion. So, for instance, if you’re wondering in Allen County about the elephant in the room – the impact of the OHSAA schools caving to NIL this week – read on.
First, this has nothing to do with common sense, and common sense at every level of consideration. It’s about politics and the ‘fifth estate’ licking their chops to dig into a new source of low-hanging fruit. The Wayne High School athlete whose family sued the OHSAA this fall over its policy banning NIL is an exception, and not the norm. And yes, he’s going to get a brief share of attention because of last week’s vote and the decision on the part of member schools to allow NIL in Ohio high school sports. Jamier Brown will be the John the Baptist – the forerunner – for high school athletes who think the war wagon has just backed up to the front door and their name, image, and likeness is going to rain money like manna from heaven.
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But the original John the Baptist example was based on something far more assured…something far more powerful and trustworthy. And something that rewarded commitment with a return on investment far more satisfying than the veritable coins in the couch that high school NIL is destined to become. And don’t get me wrong. There’s always been a scheme of one kind or another about how to redistribute wealth. But the window for return on investment has to be longer than the scant notoriety you have with impact as a high school athlete, which could be week to week. And time limitation is just the tip of this great looming iceberg.
There is the question of money management, and taxes, and the undefined rules of engagement and sanction. Nobody really knows what they don’t know about this because it’s never been done, and sanctioning bodies, as a whole, tend to be naive about kids and their immunity to vulnerability.
And there’s the question of having that one player in the locker room with a wad of cash, or a new truck, while the rest look on with contempt and jealousy. “I get the concussion, and you get the truck?” Tell me…what coach wants to deal with that, or believes he can?
And then there’s the issue of just simple, human cruelty. If high school players are being paid NIL money going forward by definition they have professional status. And with professional status comes professional expectations. And who among you is prepared for the booing and contempt that comes with missing a free throw or dropping of a touchdown pass that costs his team a win…or covering the spread? And don’t be naive. It’s here. Who’s prepared to hear about it in church, at the grocery, or in the barber shop? If you’re a pro, you’d better deliver like a pro, even a teenage pro.
As an aside…if you’re being paid to play you’re being paid to win. And increasingly, this new progressive culture is saying that a commitment to winning is just one more evil means of divisiveness…that I’m better than you. Supremacy! Think about that.
And then the source of the money, itself. How many high school athletes are out there that can move the needle for an insurance company or a car dealer – people who typically expect a return on their investment in marketing? Because that’s where the kind of money comes from that can support a family and pave the way for the future. Anything less is just an athletic Salvation Army. And that’s the very definition of name, image, and likeness…you’re representing the business interests of those who write the checks. And if you don’t move the needle, the checks stop coming.
No high school athlete I’ve ever seen, including LeBron, is going to be inducement enough for someone to buy a million dollar home…or inducement to move your 401.K. I even question trading cards!
And these are the headaches that are poised to come to athletes and families who believe that their pot of gold is as close as that which comes to the starting quarterback at Ohio State. That’s an entirely different scenario with a different level of pressures, expectations, and return.
And if you think the high school sports culture is about to go to hell in a handbasket…simply give it time. Common sense does not come in a pill or by prescription. Like the common cold, it usually runs its course if you just live within the body’s realistic limitations. You heard it here.
NIL is no different.
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There’s also questions about this weekend’s state semi-final games involving area teams St. Henry, Coldwater, and Tipp City (Tippecanoe). The words ‘how do you like their chances’ have come by the hour. So…..
Few prepare a team to play against an unsuspecting opponent better than Coldwater’s Chip Otten (above).
The reason why we don’t do a prediction page is because now you’re trying to predict teams about which you have no first-hand knowledge and experience. I’ve never seen Hopewell-Loudon, wbo plays Coldwater at Wapakoneta on Friday night.
We do know something about Columbus Grove, who plays St. Henry at Troy, because we’ve seen them in recent years play Marion Local.
And of course, everyone seems to know something about Watterson, the reigning champs in Division III, who plays Tipp on Friday night at Mason High School.
If you go online and deduce from stats and strength of schedule, as we do, you can draw your own conclusions.
For instance, Watterson has had a massive year, statistically, and their strength of schedule is probably as good as anyone in Division III. And they beat Steubenville last week, a perennial winner with four state titles, but none since 2017…43-0. It was shocking to people in eastern Ohio and Jefferson County, because ‘Big Red’ country at one time was nothing to mess with, but now it’s more questionable with seven divisions of football and open enrollment. If it doesn’t work for you here, try someplace else. Big Red has suffered a bit of a bleed, some say.
Tipp, on the other hand, among all the local schools in the upper Miami Valley seems to have benefited the most from developmental football under Matt Burgbacher. The program has grown from sixty when he took over five years ago, to about a hundred, presently. And former Tipp players are now playing at the next level of football like in no other time in history – Ben Saul, Jackson Kleather, Liam Poronsky.
All that said, Watterson is the real deal, headed by a pair of cousins named Bellisari (Drew and Carter), with a genetic legacy to Ohio State football, Greg and Steve Bellisari. There’s little question that Tipp has their work in front of them, and will have to play their best game of the season.
Few teams in Division VII football can feature a more diverse running attack that St. Henry with Charlie Werling (above), Drew Langenkamp, and Will Speck. (Press Pros Feature Photos)
Coldwater will face a team from Hopewell-Loudon that likes to run the football and plays in a conference (Sandusky Bay) that has three or four schools that would be competitive in the MAC. Statistically, this should be a very comparable matchup for Chip Otten and the Cavaliers.
St. Henry will face a more familiar team in Columbus Grove who would seem to have a balanced attack and a capable quarterback in Landon Best who threw for 1,500 yards this year and 21 touchdowns. The Bulldogs average about 33 points game and give up half that many – about the same as St. Henry. And while I’m not making a prediction…I question if Grove has seen a player of impact on offense this year the likes of St. Henry’s Charlie Werling, who ran his way through the MAC for 1,300 yards and 24 touchdowns, and has gotten better with each passing game…and each passing attempt. And I question if Grove has seen a team that’s as physical as St. Henry, overall.
Like you, I’ll be anxious to see for myself…the absolute best week of football in the entire season. Many can say that they have won the state in football. Far, far more can say…that they never got to state.
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