Classics…Coldwater and Marion Local outcomes have more than once come down to a kick. (Press Pros Feature Photos)
On the final week of the regular season we try to nail down a near-perfect final four weeks…and calculate who wins a pair of critical title-determining games between top-ranked unbeatens.
In the twelve years that we’ve offered the Friday ‘Picks’ page, I’ve repeatedly said that Week 10 is the best, and most interesting to determine a winner. Not always right, but the challenge of being right – considering all the factors – is more interesting because there’s often league titles on the line, and if you’re lucky…between unbeaten ranked teams. Such is the case this week.
That said, I’ll share some information pertaining to a reader’s question received after Week 9, and three specific games in which we not only got the winner correct, but the actual margin of win – Marion Local vs. Minster, Piqua vs. Sidney, and St. Henry vs. New Bremen.
“Are you just lucky, or do you actually know something that the rest of us don’t?” he wrote.
Yeah, there is some luck. And with about 70% of the games it’s not that tough when you consider lesser teams playing better teams. Like we wrote above, it’s the better games with better teams that are more challenging.
One thing we look at is common opponents.
Then we look at the statistical comparisons between the two teams – points allowed and points scored.
Then we look at the statistical comparisons and how they match against common opponents.
You have to consider injuries, and you have to allow for home games vs. road games. Despite what coaches say, I believe that you always sleep better in your own bed.
There are a few other things, but you get the drift.
Luck? Absolutely, but if you consider all those factors, plus what you know from just hanging around…that’s how we do it, and how you account for getting 29 of the last 30 correct, going back three weeks.
One we didn’t get right was the Preble Shawnee vs. Ansonia game. Reason? When you look at the conference statistics you see that Preble is averaging 50 points a game and has stat leaders on offense all over the place. Ansonia had one. That was a deciding factor, but it had nothing to do with the actual outcome. On another night, who knows? That’s why they play the game.
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There are some real doozies this week, exciting to consider, and here’s how we’ll start…..
Minster’s James Niemeyer may or may not be back for Friday’s game with Fort Recovery. But when he returns for the post-season he makes the ‘Cats passing game an even bigger threat.
Fort Recovery @ Minster…and a game that’s not as challenging as it is to see how Minster (7-2) responds after last week’s loss to Marion Local; and to see if injured wide receiver James Niemeyer is near enough healed to be back in time for the opening round of the playoffs. If they win the Wildcats finish 8-2, and should be no worse than a #2 seed to Marion, despite what Ansonia and Lehman do below them. And if Niemeyer is good to return, it makes Minster an entirely different animal to post-season opponents. Picking Minster to win this one…by four scores.
Lehman @ Northridge…One of the week’s most interesting matches because these two have impressive win streaks on the line…and winner takes the TRC title. Northridge lost their first three, miserably, then found the magic and have won six straight. Lehman lost its opener to Delphos St. John and has since won eight straight. Very evenly matched statistically, but Northridge has athletes all over the field and better overall speed. I can see a big play determining either outcome or the direction of the outcome. Speed kills, they say…and at home I like Bob Smith’s Polar Bears to win this, by a score.
Ansonia @ Mississinawa Valley…After seeing Ansonia in person last week, there’s one thing that every team on their schedule must know. They’re not going to beat themselves because they play so conservatively – not a lot of risk taking. So if you’re going to beat the Tigers you’d better be either big and stronger, or more talented, overall. Mississinawa is neither, having lost six of seven. Ansonia wins this to claim the outright WOAC title…by four scores.
Troy @ Sidney…These two are presently tied for 13th in the Region 8 Division 2 rankings (Joe Eitel) and whoever loses this game will have to hold their breath, given the activity above and below them. Trotwood, for instance, who’s going to win over Thurgood Marshall, and Monroe, who I pick to beat Edgewood, who’s having a down year. That said, the trick to beating Sidney (5-4) is matching up and being error-free on defense. That, and controlling the game on the ground when you have the ball. Troy (5-4) has won three of its last four and in recently years has owned this game. I give them an edge on confidence, going in. Picking Troy to win this…by a couple of scores.
Tipp, with Will Strong (above), should be all hands on deck for the MVL title matchup with Xenia.
Tipp @ Xenia…This is by far the toughest of the eight to pick this week, because there’s no clear cut winner between them in terms of statistics. You can look it up and find that Tipp and Xenia by far rule the MVL stats page through nine weeks. They’re near mirror images of each other, except for one thing. Xenia running back Deaunte White is running away with the rushing title, with 1,600 yards and 27 touchdowns. Xenia quarterback Gavin McManus owns 1,300 yards through the air, which is ironic…because Tipp’s Larkin Thomas is the MVL’s leading passer with 2,000 yards. But in games like this the run game rules, as Minster coach Seth Whiting reminded us last week. Minster threw for 200 yards, and Marion Local ran for 300…and won. Really tough to pick because there are so many moving pieces to consider…but Tipp has found a way all season. I think they’re the more complete team. And I think they win, by a score.
Miami East @ Covington…Simply put, this is Miami East’s game to lose. The Vikings are 6-3, older, more experienced, and they’re playing a team at Covington that’s now lost five in a row, and six of their last seven. And at 7-3 East would be no worse than a mid-seed in Region 20, Division V. Covington, on the other hand, needs to win just to ensure that they get to play on Week 11. At 3-6 the Buccs are sitting at #14 and another loss would mean they might need some help. Feeling good about the Vikings…I think they win by three scores.
Riverside @ Milton Union…And what about Milton (5-4), winners of four of their last five and sitting #12 this week in Region 20? Given where they started, I would count them as one of my five legit success stories for 2024 because the Bulldogs have won five of seven after losing to Versailles and Valley View. Like everyone else, they have a few bumps and bruises, but generally they get the advantage physically this week when they meet Riverside. It’s been an up and down year for the Pirates (4-5), and they’ve never won against the Bulldogs in the recent history of the TRC. And if Milton wins, given what’s around them, they could improve to as much as #10 or #11 because both Versailles (#10) and Marion Pleasant (#11) have a tough Friday game. We’ll see. Bulldogs should win this one, over Riverside, by three scores.
Versailles @ St. Henry…We mentioned St. Henry (5-4) in the open as a team that’s both getting healthy and finding their groove. And if they win this week they would finish 6-4 and be in consideration for one of the area’s best turnarounds (3-7 a year ago). Versailles must feel a bit of snake bite, given a four-game loss streak and some mounting injuries. But that’s football. Momentum has a lot to do with it, and in that respect alone I give an edge here to St. Hank. Both teams will make the post-season, but I pick St. Henry to get there with a winning record.
The quarterbacks will be heard from…Coldwater’s Baylen Blockberger leads the Cavs against Marion Local, who’s seeking the all-time consecutive wins record in Ohio.
Marion Local @ Coldwater…Like Tipp and Xenia, these are the area’s two other significant unbeatens meeting for the outright conference title. And I’ve seen a few of these games and all I can say is they’re never dull. I’ve seen both win on last-second field goals, and I’ve seen Marion Local simply throttle the Cavaliers with their offense (35-0 and 35-14 the last two years). This year’s Marion is the best Marion I’ve seen over the years, and I’d say this about Coldwater. And it may not be the best version of Coldwater, but it’s one of the most competitive, with traditional Coldwater resourcefulness. They still have that card up their sleeve, and Chip Otten always knows when to play it. I haven’t said much about individual performers in this ‘picks’ edition, but in this case you have to consider the two quarterbacks, Justin Knouff (Marion) and Baylen Blockberger (Coldwater). They’re two of the most gifted leaders I’ve seen at the position this year, and equally effective running and passing. Marion has the advantage in experience at nearly every position, and that great passing game. But Coldwater has a run game with Cody Depweg and Miles Pottkotter by which they might extend drives and shorten the game…and they’re capable of the big play, as always. Plus, the Cavaliers have an excellent kicking game. If they can do that, and stay mistake-free, they can make a very competitive game of it. The other thing you have to consider is how high will the 50-50 be? It’s the one 50-50 all year that I actually buy a ticket, and I’m due. I’ve never even had the right color, much less the right number. Enough said, and let’s play. If they win Marion will achieve the all-time record for consecutive wins, at 58, and that should be a powerful motivation. The Flyers are simply the best small-school football program currently playing in Ohio, and that’s not subjective. They’ve proven it. Could be very good, but I’m picking the Flyers to win by a couple of scores. But don’t ever take Coldwater for granted.
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